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Ozone prediction based on meteorological variables: a fuzzy inductive reasoning approach

机译:基于气象变量的臭氧预测:一种模糊归纳推理方法

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摘要

MILAGRO project was conducted in Mexico City during March 2006 with the mainobjective of study the local and global impact of pollution generated bymegacities. The research presented in this paper is framed in MILAGROproject and is focused on the study and development of modelingmethodologies that allow the forecasting of daily ozone concentrations. Thepresent work aims to develop Fuzzy Inductive Reasoning (FIR) models usingthe Visual-FIR platform. FIR offers a model-based approach to modeling andpredicting either univariate or multivariate time series. Visual-FIR offersan easy-friendly environment to perform this task. In this research, longterm prediction of maximum ozone concentration in the downtown of MexicoCity Metropolitan Area is performed. The data were registered every hour andinclude missing values. Two modeling perspectives are analyzed, i.e. monthlyand seasonal models. The results show that the developed models are able topredict the diurnal variation of ozone, including its maximum daily value inan accurate manner.
机译:MILAGRO项目于2006年3月在墨西哥城进行,其主要目的是研究特大城市产生的污染对当地和全球的影响。本文介绍的研究是在MILAGRO项目中进行的,专注于建模方法的研究和开发,该方法可以预测每日的臭氧浓度。本工作旨在使用Visual-FIR平台开发模糊归纳推理(FIR)模型。 FIR提供了一种基于模型的方法来建模和预测单变量或多变量时间序列。 Visual-FIR提供了一个轻松友好的环境来执行此任务。在这项研究中,对墨西哥城都会区的最大臭氧浓度进行了长期预测。每小时记录一次数据,其中包括缺失值。分析了两个建模角度,即每月和季节性模型。结果表明,所开发的模型能够准确地预测臭氧的日变化,包括其最大日值。

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